There Are Six Reasons For The Failure Of The Market This Week.

The current adjustment is just a recuperation on the way up, with the target adjusted from 2800 to 3000. Once the end is over, the adjustment will go back to the wave of rising tide, and the future market opportunities will still be in the blue chip of state-owned enterprises.

This year's macroeconomic data are not ideal.

In January, China's official manufacturing industry PMI fell below 50 for the first time in two years, to 49.8%.

Since 2005, except for January 2009, the value was 45.3, less than 50, and the manufacturing industry in January for the rest of the year.

All above 50.

Although the steady growth measures have been frequent since the fourth quarter of last year, the overall decline of the manufacturing industry has not been changed, and the new order index has continued to slide, which is already close to the contraction area.

This shows that the economy is still weak, and stable growth is still the first policy objective in 2015. Monetary policy has entered the stage of easing.

In terms of releasing liquidity, the central bank's net investment in the open market in January was only 105 billion yuan, which was significantly reduced compared with the previous period of loose monetary policy (such as 2012). In terms of interest rates, the depreciation of foreign exchange due to devaluation of the renminbi and the tight funds before the holiday were also affected.

Among them, the 7 day repo rate rose from 3.8% at the end of 1 to 4.3% in February 6th, but the central bank's reverse repo rate remained stable since the beginning of the year. It remained at 3.85% for 7 days and 4.8% to 28 in 28 days.

This reflects the cautious operation style of the central bank's monetary policy, and no intention of releasing more loose signals. This undoubtedly disappointing the market and affecting the investors' mood.

Last Wednesday, the central bank's lowering standards changed people's pessimistic expectations.

Take this reduction as an example, reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and directing the city commercial banks and agricultural business institutions to reduce their liquidity accurately, initially estimate the release of liquidity by about 660 billion. Considering that the reduction of the right amount is conducive to enhancing the ability of banks to provide loans and increasing the monetary multiplier, the actual monetary stimulus is more vigorous.

What is more important is that the RRR once again shows to the market that the central bank's repeated emphasis on monetary policy neutrality does not mean that the central bank does not release water, and the central bank will release stronger monetary policy signals when necessary.

It can be expected that in the face of economic downturn and liquidity pressure caused by the decrease in foreign exchange reserves, the central bank will continue to reduce or cut interest rates this year to boost market demand for liquidity.

There is a cause for failure.

The drop was similar to that of the central bank in November last year, when the market expected that it would not be able to determine the exact time.

The difference is that this time limit is on the stimulus.

The effect of rising is very limited.

The reasons are as follows.

First of all, we should not overestimate the effect of RR on liquidity.

In fact, the background of this reduction is related to the continued depreciation of the renminbi.

The recent RMB spot exchange rate has closed 6 times in 7 consecutive trading days. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will undoubtedly increase the pressure of outflow of funds. The central bank's ability to release liquidity to the banking system is actually just the pressure of the outflow of hedge funds, and the improvement of liquidity remains to be seen.

From the perspective of banks, although the liquidity of banks will be more favorable to stimulate bank lending, the actual credit expansion ability of banks will still be limited if the economic downturn pressure leads to the credit risk of real economy.

Secondly, the easing policy has a diminishing effect on market stimulus.

Last time, the central bank's interest rate cuts could stimulate the market to rebound substantially. There are two main factors: the market is hard to predict in advance that the central bank will cut interest rates in the early 2014 when the monetary policy is not stimulated. The rate cut completely breaks the inherent expectations of the people. Last time the interest rate cut was relatively large, and the benchmark lending rate dropped more than the usual 25 basis points.

But for this time, the response of the market will be more rational. On the one hand, the market has already had strong expectations for the reduction of the market. Although the latter is somewhat later, it is generally in line with market expectations. On the other hand, the sharp decline in interest rates after the last rate cut has also objectively reduced the expectation of improving liquidity.

Third, the central bank's loose monetary policy should not be overestimated.

Although the central bank has released the easing signal, it is unrealistic to expect the central bank to release more liquidity in the short term. After all, the central bank has indicated that the keynote of monetary policy in 2015 is steady and moderate.

And from the internal and external environment, it does not support the central bank to implement too loose monetary policy. At present, too loose liquidity is easy to brew asset bubbles when the real economy is sluggish and it is difficult to absorb more liquidity.

Moreover, in the case of a relatively strong appreciation cycle for the US dollar, too loose liquidity can easily trigger the pressure of excessive devaluation of the RMB, which is also the central bank's unwillingness to see.

The market is waiting.

This year, the A share market failed to continue the rally in December last year. One important factor is that the market has deviations from the interpretation of "policy for strengthening financing regulation".

In fact, at the beginning of a big rally, strengthening supervision will be conducive to a longer market in the future.

In the short term, there are many factors affecting the market.

The net outflow of funds in the market paction and settlement fund is 41 billion 500 million yuan, which is a continuous second week net outflow of funds and a 388 billion 900 million week cumulative outflow of funds for two weeks. 2, the regulatory level's "deleveraging" policy, including the regulation of Fan Rongzi and umbrella funds, etc., 3, fourth quarter of last year, the largest deficit in China's capital account since 1998 last year, and the recent sharp decline in the RMB exchange rate, and the pressure on the stock market due to the accelerated capital outflow. 4, this week, there are 24 new shares, which will bring more pressure to the short-term capital market. The trading of the options will start on Monday. Under the current market adjustment environment, the hedging function of the options will have a certain short selling effect, and the corresponding 50ETF heavy weight stocks will form a certain pressure on the index. In addition to the economic level, there are the following: 1, January 26 Li to January 30th, securities.

However, we are still optimistic about the long-term trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, or the saying: the road is tortuous and the future is bright.

But the short-term adjustment is not over yet. At present, the A share market seems to be waiting for something: 1, wait for the end of the technical adjustment after the rapid rise; 2, wait for the investors to miss the rapid rise at the end of last year, give them the opportunity to take a leisurely ride; 3, wait for the capital to gather again; 4, wait for the highlight of the domestic economy.